A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got something to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
